Why the 2025 Housing Market Won’t Crash Like It Did in 2008

By Ted Holmes

A lifelong resident of Chappaqua, Ted began his career as a mortgage loan officer over 20 years ago, eventually co-owning The Asset Center, Inc., a mortgage brokerage firm in Armonk, NY.

Every week, I talk to people who are hesitating—buyers waiting for prices to drop or sellers afraid they’ve missed the peak. It’s easy to feel uncertain when headlines are full of panic. But when you strip away the noise and look at the numbers, they tell a completely different story. The market isn’t crashing. It’s shifting. And that shift looks nothing like the 2008 recession.

Let’s go back for a minute. Before the last crash in 2007, housing inventory peaked at over 4 million homes. Currently, we have around 900,000. That’s a 75% drop. With fewer homes available and consistent demand, prices remain steady or continue to rise. We’re not dealing with a market collapse. We’re experiencing a supply issue.

Lending standards. In 2008, people were getting mortgages without showing income, credit, or even a down payment. Loans were handed out with almost no oversight. Today, buyers are fully documented, putting down real money, and qualifying under much tighter rules. That matters. It keeps the market grounded and stable.

Mortgage delinquencies. In 2010, 11% of borrowers were behind on their payments. Today, that number is about 9%, and it’s improving. Fewer missed payments mean fewer foreclosures, which means less pressure on the market. These are the fundamentals that keep everything from falling apart.

So, why do the headlines still mention a crash? Because fear sells. It gets clicks. But fear isn’t a strategy, and neither is waiting. I’ve seen this happen in every cycle. People hold back, hoping to time the market and end up buying later at a higher price or competing in tighter conditions.

This market isn’t easy, but it’s not dangerous. If you’ve been considering a move, this may still be a smart time to do so, provided you understand the dynamics and act with the correct information.

If you’re unsure where things stand or would like to review the actual numbers for your area, I’m happy to help. Please call me at (914) 548-6179, send an email to ted.holmes@raveis.com, or visit www.theholmesteamny.com to reach me. I’ll walk you through it, no pressure, just facts.